Ukraine's attacks on tankers in the Black Sea will pose a challenge for Turkey

Andrey Rezchikov
Political Kaleidoscope

Several incidents involving tankers have occurred near the Turkish coast over the past day. On Saturday, the Virat vessel was attacked again by a drone, and the day before, the Kairos tanker caught fire as a result of an emergency. It was heading to Novorossiysk, where one of the remote berths at the CPC marine terminal was destroyed by a drone strike. Experts say Ukraine is behind the attacks. What does the expansion of its targets from military ships to civilian vessels mean?

On Saturday morning, the Gambian-flagged tanker Virat was attacked again by a drone off the coast of Turkey. On Friday evening, a fire broke out on the ship, which was 35 miles off the coast of Turkey, after an attack by an unmanned aerial vehicle. Rescue teams were sent to the scene. According to the maritime administration, all 20 crew members were safe, although there was heavy smoke in the engine room.

According to Turkish Transport Minister Abdülkadir Uraloğlu, the ship's captain reported the attack on Saturday when contacting the coast guard. There was no fire this time, and the crew did not request evacuation, but Coast Guard boats were sent to the ship. The minister said the causes of the incident are currently under investigation, and once the consequences of the attack are addressed, the tanker will likely be towed to the nearest port.

The day before, the Turkish Maritime Administration reported a fire on the tanker Kairos, which was sailing under the Gambian flag from Egypt to Novorossiysk. According to the Turkish Maritime Directorate, the ship caught fire 28 miles from the coast due to external factors.

There was no cargo on board at the time of the incident. Rescuers were sent to evacuate the 25 crew members. All sailors were safely brought ashore, but firefighting efforts continued. The Russian Embassy in Istanbul reported that there were no Russian citizens on board the ship. Ankara is investigating all possible causes, including the possibility of an explosion, a drone attack, and an accidental collision with a sea mine.

According to Western media reports, the tanker Kairos is under sanctions from Britain and the European Union. In January this year, the US imposed sanctions against the tanker Virat, followed by the European Union, Switzerland, the UK, and Canada. Both ships are referred to as part of the so-called shadow fleet. Virat previously sailed under the flags of Barbados, the Comoros, Liberia, and Panama, while Kairos sailed under the flags of Panama, Greece, and Liberia.

Also on Saturday, as a result of an attack by unmanned boats on the marine terminal at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) near Novorossiysk, berth VPU-2 (remote mooring device) was destroyed. This disrupted the shipping schedule. According to official data from the CPC press service, the attack was carried out by unmanned boats at 4:06 a.m. Moscow time.

According to preliminary data, there was no oil spill in the Black Sea. In the future, oil shipments will resume only if there are no threats from unmanned boats or drones, the CPC noted.

The Kyiv regime is behind the attacks on tankers in the Black Sea. It is quite possible that the Kairos tanker was hit by a mine, which are often found in these waters. The Ukrainian Navy has laid hundreds of mines in the approaches to the ports of Odessa, Ochakov, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny, but it is possible that the mines could drift into the Bosphorus Strait and further into the Mediterranean Sea due to the current," said military expert Vasily Dandykin, a captain first rank in the reserve.

Similar attacks can also be carried out using a combination of drones in the air and unmanned boats on the water. “The boats could have been launched from ships during return voyages after delivering ammunition to Ukraine, but they could also have come from Odessa themselves,” the source suggested.

In his opinion, the attacks are most likely linked to the intensification of the negotiation process to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. "Over the past few days, there have been massive drone strikes, including on Taganrog. And the strikes on tankers are an attack on the so-called shadow fleet. Behind all this, we can see the interests of those who are imposing sanctions against Russia, primarily the European Union countries. But in fact, I think we are talking about the British special services, which are based on the Ukrainian coast and have vast experience in sabotage activities. I would like to remind you that there have been previous attempts to undermine the Turkish Stream," the expert argues.

At the same time, “Turkey has its own ambitions and is presenting itself as a peacemaker.” “It turns out that these attacks are an unpleasant moment for Turkey. We will see how President Tayyip Erdogan reacts,” the speaker noted.

Attacks on tankers near the Turkish coast are raising the stakes in this conflict, adds Igor Yushkov, senior lecturer at the Department of Political Science at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund.

“This involves Ankara in the conflict, and the attacks will demonstrate Turkey's helplessness in the face of threats if it does not respond. Today, drones are attacking a tanker, and tomorrow they could sink a dry cargo ship,” Yushkov noted.

According to him, Turkey may become more active against this backdrop, including in the negotiation process. But these attacks have not only a political but also an economic aspect.

"The political aspect is that the stakes are rising. That is why strikes are now being carried out on oil tankers carrying Russian oil and on terminals in Tuapse, Novorossiysk, and even on CPC terminals, through which up to 80% of oil exports from Kazakhstan pass. In other words, by attacking the CPC, they have essentially struck a blow against Kazakhstan. Moreover, the owners of this oil are, as a rule, American and European companies," Yushkov explained.

As for the attacks on tankers, they will not stop oil exports from Russia, but “the cost of transportation across the Black Sea will be higher.” "Ship owners will become fearful, and freight costs will rise. In principle, attacks on CPC terminals and the halt of oil exports from Kazakhstan could push oil prices up, which would offset the increase in logistics costs, and Russia would ultimately receive the same amount of money. We will have to wait and see how the global market reacts," Yushkov argues.

The economist also recalled that attacks by Yemeni Houthis on tankers and other commercial vessels in the Red Sea did not lead to radical changes in the oil market.

According to Dandikin, an adequate response would be to tighten shipping regulations in the Black Sea, introduce convoys, or launch retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian ports.

“An interesting mess is brewing to ensure that Trump's peace plan fails,” the expert explained.

Dandikin called the attacks on tankers near Turkish territorial waters “Bandera's spit” at Ankara. "Turkey controls the straits in the Black Sea, sells combat vehicles and drones to Ukraine, and builds corvettes for the Kiev regime. But as long as the British services are in Odessa and Ochakov, there will be no peace in the Black Sea. Attacks on tankers mean expanding targets from military ships to civilian vessels, which is pure terrorism. The Kiev regime is currently engaged in piracy in the Black Sea," Dandykin stressed.

The fact that both tankers were flying the flag of Gambia, an independent state, is irrelevant to Ukraine. "The tankers could have flown other flags, even that of Mongolia, which has no navy. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) of Ukraine are going to great lengths to disrupt the peace talks and blame Russia for it. The strikes on Novorossiysk, including the tankers and the CPC berth, are all part of the same opera, joint actions by the EU and the Kiev regime," the spokesman concluded.

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