Ove Bengt Berg
Politicus

An imperial power in decline and desperation is a dramatic warning sign

In violation of all international rules and contrary to Trump's political promises not to involve the US in new wars, Trump took up the Nobel Committee's call, and attacked Venezuela, capturing the head of state and bringing him to the US. Why?

Not for drugs, possibly to secure US-controlled states in South America. A likely reason is to secure control over Venezuela's oil resources, one of the largest in the world. Most important, however, is probably to support Israel's desire to break the alliance between Iran and Hezbollah. Venezuela's oil resources have been a risk factor for Israel. Secretary of State Rubio is a power broker in the US, financed by a wealthy Israeli widow.

In his commentary, Helge Lurås of iNyheter highlights several points that suggest that Trump and the US are “recipients of other people's agendas” – rather than actors acting on their own overarching strategic interests. This is because it violates the MAGA movement's policy. Lurås writes...

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

Regime Tweaking, Not Regime Change, Is What The US Just Achieved In Venezuela. This refers to keeping the targeted state’s power structure in place but after some (at times significant) changes that advance the meddling state’s interests.

Some critics of the US’ “special military operation” in Venezuela claim that it didn’t succeed despite President Nicolas Maduro’s capture since the “Chavismo deep state” that he presided over remains in place. This refers to the explicitly ideological elements of his country’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies but can be expanded to include governors and trade unions among other groups. The point is that removing Maduro from the political equation didn’t result in regime change.

That’s true, but the premise that US wanted to achieve such a goal is debatable since Trump 2.0 is comprised of figures who’ve criticized previous regime change operations for destabilizing their regions and leading to unpredictable consequences that ultimately harmed US interests. It’s therefore plausible that they never intended to forcibly carry out regime change in Venezuela due to concerns that a civil war might follow, which could engender a large-scale migrant crisis and destroy energy infrastructure.

Rather, the immediate goal can be described as regime tweaking, which refers to keeping the targeted state’s power structure in place but after some (at times significant) changes that advance the meddling state’s interests. In the Venezuelan context, the US forcibly removed Maduro so that he’d be replaced by his Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who Trump publicly expects to “do what we want” (likely at Marco Rubio’s direction). That’s arguably what he meant by “running the country” till its transition is complete.