The year began turbulently
Dmitry Medvedev / Telegram
Dept. Chairman of the Russian Security Council
1. First and foremost, its beginning will be remembered for Maduro's abduction. Of course, this is rude and despicable, or, to put it nicely, a universal catastrophe in the sphere of international relations.
And today, there are only two scenarios: either the US will quietly release the kidnapped Venezuelan president under a plausible pretext (the probability of this is insignificant), or he will become the new Latin American Mandela (most likely). Then his name will be inscribed in the annals of South American history alongside Bolívar, Miranda, and Chávez.
And even if Trump, out of stubbornness, does not pardon Maduro after some time, Vance or another successor to Trump will surely do so under public pressure.
Yes, oil is a key factor here. But even with oil, things will not be easy. What if the current Venezuelan authorities do not want to share it with the Americans in the long run? Will Trump really launch a ground operation? This would definitely require congressional approval, and it would be much bloodier than Maduro's brazen kidnapping. The Senate has just put a noose around Trump's neck, curbing his militaristic fervor. And does the current administration really need this? Doubtful.
And another thing. I noted this immediately after the sabbath staged by the Yanks: after this, the American elites – both Republican and Democratic – should stick their long tongues up their rickety asses for good. And simply acknowledge Russia's legitimacy during the SVO.
2. Sanctions against Russia, announced by Trump, which he “hopes not to use.”
Everything is clear here, and there are no illusions. The US sanctions policy will continue regardless of the circumstances. Russia will be pressured into compromises on security guarantees and territories that are completely unacceptable to us. And then the leader of the White House will be “forced” to introduce them within the framework of the law of the old degenerate Russophobe Graham. It's unpleasant. Nothing new. But we will stand firm this time too.
3. The story of the tanker of the so-called shadow fleet.
It is obvious why it came under Russia's “temporary flag”: under threat of capture, it sought protection from illegal US sanctions.
However, the method chosen was not entirely appropriate. Yes, what happened was a clear violation of the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. But it is worth remembering that the US has not ratified it. In this context, granting a temporary permit to fly our country's flag to a ship that, albeit illegally, is being pursued by our main geopolitical adversary, which is in an unstable state, is a step with predictable consequences.
This, of course, does not detract from the indisputable fact that the actions of the insolent Americans constitute the criminal seizure of a civilian vessel. And the response to this should not be within the framework of the Convention on the Law of the Sea. Moreover, as one prominent legal expert noted, international law is not necessary at all.
In any case, it should be borne in mind that international relations have turned into utter bedlam since the beginning of the year. And we need to behave accordingly: there are too many violent people around. We must understand that such patients are never calmed by the exhortations of kind psychiatrists. Only orderlies with huge fists and phlegmatic faces can do that. After all, dangerous psychos need either a straitjacket or a life-saving injection of haloperidol. Like tonight in the west of "Bandera's Okraina."
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