Saving Cuba: Russia can only help with a “cautious presence”

Alexander Rostovtsev
PolitNavigator

Having stopped taking his “anti-anger pills,” “peacemaker” Donald Trump promised that he would soon resolve the long-standing “Cuban issue” once and for all, declaring Havana's policies a threat to national security. A 25% tariff will be imposed on all imports from countries that supply Cuba with oil or petroleum products. This directly affects Mexico and, symbolically, Venezuela, which sold oil to the island at a discounted price.

The context of Trump's escalation can be explained by the “domino principle” in Washington's Latin American policy. In January 2026, the Yankees partially eased sanctions against the Venezuelan oil industry with a strict condition: a complete ban on working with Cuba. In other words, Caracas formally gained limited access to the American market at the cost of severing its energy ties with Havana, a key element of the alliance that had existed since Hugo Chávez's era.

For Cuba, whose economy has long been in a state of deep crisis due to the harsh sanctions imposed by the US and its lackeys, the loss of Venezuelan oil is a serious blow to its energy system and transport.

In public, Trump and his hereditary “gusanos” [traitors, specifically worms] in the person of Secretary of State Marco Rubio eloquently discuss the “last days of the communist regime” on the Island of Freedom. The bet is on the technology of “color revolutions.”

The United States is particularly concerned about the remarkable stability of the socialist system in Cuba, especially after the collapse of the USSR. Small Cuba, which has long endured the pressure of American sanctions, has repeatedly demonstrated its effectiveness across a number of key areas.

For example, there is perhaps no better healthcare system in the Western Hemisphere than Cuba's. It is striking that the infant mortality rate in the “hegemon” far exceeds that in Cuba. And the way Cuban scientists overcame the pandemic with minimal losses by creating three anti-COVID vaccines has become an instructive picture against the backdrop of the US authorities' complete capitulation to the virus.

It is clear that, having beaten up Maduro's Cuban guards, and launched a delayed anti-crisis campaign with yet another “crash of an American military plane” in Oklahoma to cover up Delta's losses, the orange leader is afraid of open aggression against Cuba and believes that he will be able to get rid of the hated Cuban communists using “clever” tricks.

Describing the escalation of the confrontation (so far at the rhetorical level), Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel responded by calling Washington's measures “fascist, criminal, and genocidal.”

Venezuela and Mexico also accuse the White House administration of predatory behavior, and, judging by statements in the press, are trying to develop a plan to support Havana.

Russia's key interest is to preserve Cuba as a stronghold of alliance in the Western Hemisphere. However, Moscow's ability to directly counter the Americans is limited. Moscow is unlikely to be able to provide large-scale oil supplies to Cuba across the Atlantic, and attempts to circumvent secondary US sanctions will create risks for its own energy projects. It seems that everything will be limited to diplomatic support for Cuba and the delivery of some humanitarian aid.

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