What’s At Stake In The “Battle For Hungary”?

Andrew Korybko
Andrew Korybko's Newsletter

The Hungarian people have the greatest stakes since they’ll be the ones who’ll live with the consequences.

Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Hungary have been described by RT as the “Battle for Hungary” due to the huge stakes involved for the EU, Ukraine, the US, and to a lesser extent, Russia.

The first three have also sought to influence voters, the EU, and Ukraine via various forms of meddling that include concocting Russiagate conspiracy theories and even attempting to blow up Hungary’s main gas pipeline, and the US through Trump’s and Vance’s endorsement of incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban.

The EU’s interest in “democratically deposing” Orbán is ideological, since he’s a conservative nationalist opposed to the liberal-globalist agenda the bloc wants to impose on Hungary. The opposition’s chief economic advisor is Shell’s former Vice President for Mobility, Istvan Kapitany, and this article explains how he wants to succeed where George Soros failed. In a nutshell, the EU considers Hungary under Orban to be a major impediment to its federalization plans, which they hope to soon remove.

Ukraine hates Hungary too, but only because Orban refuses to arm it, continues purchasing energy from Russia, and has occasionally obstructed EU funding for this former Soviet Republic.

In response, Ukraine has weaponized the Druzhba oil pipeline from Russia, upon which Hungary relies to a large degree, to pressure it into reversing its policies, but to no avail. Ukraine also colludes with the Hungarian opposition, which is now Ukraine’s and the EU’s joint proxy, in their Russiagate conspiracy theories.

The US’s interests are the opposite of the EU’s and Ukraine’s: Trump 2.0 wants Orban to win re-election, and that’s why Trump himself and Vance both endorsed him. The National Security Strategy calls for supporting like-minded conservatives in Europe as part of the administration’s plans to avert the continent’s “civilizational erasure” brought about by its ruling liberal-globalist clique. For the US, Hungary represents a viable alternative for Europe, one whose model it hopes will be emulated by others.

Out of the four foreign parties with stakes in the “Battle for Hungary”, Russia’s are the least. It supports Orban’s pragmatic approach to the Ukrainian Conflict and views Hungary as a valuable partner in Europe. More than that, however, Putin believes that Orban can help repair Russian-EU relations sometime after their proxy war in Ukraine ends. While certainly game-changing if it occurs, this scenario is admittedly unlikely, which is why Russia isn’t meddling in his support despite conspiracy theories to the contrary.

Finally, it’s Hungarians who have the greatest stakes in this “battle” since they’ll be the ones who’ll live with the consequences, and they’ll likely support keeping Orban in office. During his latest term, which began in 2022, he prevented an economic crisis by maintaining energy imports from Russia and ensured Hungary’s security by keeping it out of the Ukrainian Conflict. Its sovereignty has also been strengthened. His deposition would therefore be disastrous for Hungary’s objective national interests.

If he forms the next government, however, then it can’t be ruled out that the EU and Ukraine will order their opposition proxy to launch a Color Revolution. After all, they invested so much in trying to get rid of him that it makes sense to desperately stage one last very dramatic effort to that end on the false basis that “Russian meddling” helped him win. This doesn’t mean that they’ll succeed, but they can still inflict lots of damage to their country as a form of EU and Ukrainian punishment against the Hungarian people.

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